The real estate market is poised for an exciting resurgence as we move into spring, thanks to a combination of pent-up demand, favourable borrowing conditions, and the season's usual uptick in listings. After years of fluctuating market activity, buyers and sellers alike can look forward to a dynamic season with opportunities across various segments of the housing market.

What’s Driving the Anticipated Spring Boom?

Several factors are aligning to create the perfect storm for a robust spring real estate market:

1. Pent-Up Demand: After more than two years of cautious activity, buyers are ready to re-enter the market. This eagerness, combined with improving economic conditions, could unleash significant market activity.

2. Lower Borrowing Costs: Recent interest rate cuts have created a more favourable environment for buyers, further fuelling demand.

3. Increased Inventory: Many regions, particularly Ontario and British Columbia, are showing an abundance of available properties. This surplus offers buyers more options than they’ve seen in years.

Regional Trends to Watch

While the national market is expected to see prices rise by an average of 4.7% this year, regional variations offer unique opportunities:

• Ontario and British Columbia: These provinces are expected to see moderate price increases aligned with inflation. However, the ample inventory in these areas provides room for buyers to make strategic investments without immediate pressure from rising prices.

• Luxury Market Dynamics: Single-family homes are taking the lead in the luxury segment, as buyers increasingly seek value in larger properties.

Risks on the Horizon

Despite the optimistic outlook, the market isn’t without potential challenges. Economic uncertainties, such as trade tensions, could dampen activity. Additionally, a rapid surge in demand could outpace supply, creating short-term market imbalances.

A Preview from the Fall

The real estate rebound seen in the fall offers a glimpse of what’s to come. While December saw a slight dip in activity due to limited supply, overall sales remained significantly higher than mid-year levels. This momentum, combined with the usual spring listing surge, sets the stage for a bustling market.

Key Takeaways

As spring approaches, both buyers and sellers should prepare for a season filled with opportunities:

• Buyers: Take advantage of increased inventory and favourable borrowing conditions to find the right property before prices rise further.

• Sellers: The spring surge in demand presents an ideal opportunity to list properties, with many motivated buyers ready to act.

Whether you’re considering entering the market or simply observing, 2025 is shaping up to be an exciting year for real estate. Now is the time to plan your next move and make the most of this vibrant market environment.

Hamilton, ON — Hamilton’s housing market is already under intense pressure, and the City of Hamilton's consideration of a Municipal Land Transfer Tax (MLTT) could make matters worse for homebuyers and the local economy.

The Cornerstone Association of REALTORS® is raising concerns about the impact of this proposed tax, which would be added on top of the existing provincial land transfer tax. In a city where affordability is already a major issue, this additional financial burden threatens to put homeownership even further out of reach for many residents.

Why the MLTT Could Hurt Hamilton Homebuyers

Hamilton’s housing market has seen skyrocketing prices, limited supply, and increased demand, making it challenging for prospective buyers to find affordable options. Adding a municipal land transfer tax to the equation would significantly increase the upfront costs of purchasing a home.

“This tax would effectively make homeownership less attainable in Hamilton, placing a disproportionate burden on prospective buyers,” said Julie Sergi, Chair of the Cornerstone Association of REALTORS®. “With rising inflation, stagnant wages, and a competitive housing market, Hamiltonians are already struggling to afford homes. The last thing they need is an additional tax that will make achieving the dream of homeownership even harder.”

Public Opposition to the MLTT

The community’s stance on this issue is clear: a recent poll by Abacus Data revealed that a significant majority of Hamiltonians oppose the implementation of an MLTT. Residents expressed concerns that the tax would delay their ability to purchase a home and worsen affordability challenges.

Potential Economic Repercussions

Beyond impacting homebuyers, the MLTT could have wider economic consequences. The housing market is a major driver of consumer spending, and any slowdown in real estate transactions could affect sectors like home renovations, local retail, and other industries tied to homeownership.

“Imposing this tax would not only hurt homebuyers, but it could also have wider economic repercussions for Hamilton,” Sergi added. “The housing market drives consumer spending, and any slowdown in transactions would result in lost economic activity, affecting everything from home renovations to local retail businesses.”

A Call for Better Solutions

The Cornerstone Association of REALTORS® is urging Hamilton City Council to reconsider its priorities and focus on policies that support affordable housing and long-term economic stability. Instead of imposing additional taxes, the organisation advocates for alternative solutions that prioritise affordability and reduce financial barriers for families.

In an already challenging economic environment, Hamiltonians need support, not additional hurdles. It’s time to explore innovative, sustainable policies that foster a thriving, affordable housing market and a strong local economy.

As a team of realtors, our mission is to help you protect your investment while maximizing your home's value. One of the best ways to achieve this is through smart home upgrades that reduce risks, save on insurance costs, and boost your property’s appeal. Here are ten improvements to consider:

1. Invest in a Security System

A modern security system does more than deter intruders—it’s an investment in safety and peace of mind. Features like cameras, alarms, smart locks, and fire or carbon monoxide detectors not only improve security but can also lead to lower insurance premiums.

2. Upgrade Your Roof

Your roof is your home’s first line of defence against the elements. A durable, weather-resistant roof—such as one with impact-resistant shingles—reduces the risk of storm damage and may qualify for insurance discounts, especially in provinces like Alberta and Ontario, where severe weather is common.

3. Install Storm Shutters or Impact-Resistant Windows

If your area experiences frequent snowstorms, heavy rainfall, or strong winds, storm shutters or impact-resistant windows add an extra layer of protection. These upgrades can help prevent damage and demonstrate to insurers that you’re proactive about managing risks.

4. Modernize Electrical Wiring and Plumbing

Older homes often have outdated electrical and plumbing systems, which pose safety hazards and increase insurance costs. Upgrading these systems not only reduces the risk of fire or water damage but also increases your home’s overall value.

5. Add Whole-House Surge Protection

Electrical surges can damage your appliances and systems. Installing whole-house surge protection safeguards your home and may even qualify you for lower insurance rates.

6. Use Fire-Resistant Materials

From non-combustible siding like stone or brick to fire-resistant insulation, these materials are a smart investment. They enhance the safety of your home while potentially lowering your insurance premiums.

7. Upgrade Heating Systems

Old heating systems can be fire hazards and inefficient. Replacing them with modern, energy-efficient options like electric heat pumps or natural gas furnaces reduces risks, improves energy efficiency, and lowers utility bills.

8. Install a Sump Pump or Backflow Valve

For homes in flood-prone areas, water damage is a constant concern. A sump pump or backflow valve protects your home from flooding and sewage backups, which can help reduce your insurance premiums.

9. Consider a Fire Sprinkler System

Fire sprinklers, while more common in industrial settings, are becoming popular in residential homes—particularly in fire-prone areas. They help contain fires quickly, reducing damage and possibly lowering insurance costs.

10. Keep Your Property Well-Maintained

Simple tasks like cleaning gutters, trimming trees, and keeping your yard tidy prevent avoidable damage and maintain your home’s curb appeal. A well-maintained property is less likely to face insurance claims, benefiting you in the long term.

By sharing these recommendations, we aim to help you make informed decisions that protect your investment and enhance your home’s value. These upgrades not only improve safety and reduce costs but also make your property more attractive to future buyers.

Have questions or want to discuss how these upgrades can help your home stand out? Our team is here to help—let’s connect!

Selling your home is a significant decision that involves careful planning and preparation. A well-prepared home not only attracts potential buyers but also ensures you get the best possible price. Here’s a step-by-step guide to help you get your property market-ready.

1. Assess the Market

Before listing your home, research the local real estate market. Understand the demand, average selling prices, and the type of properties buyers are looking for in your area. Consulting a local real estate agent can provide valuable insights and help you set a competitive asking price.

2. Declutter and Depersonalise

Buyers need to envision themselves living in your home, which can be challenging if the space is filled with personal items and clutter.

• Remove family photos, personal collections, and excessive decorations.

• Organise closets, cabinets, and storage areas to showcase the space's full potential.

• Donate or store items you don’t need during the selling process.

3. Deep Clean

A clean home creates a positive first impression. Pay special attention to:

• Carpets and flooring

• Windows and mirrors

• Kitchens and bathrooms

• Air vents and light fixtures Consider hiring professional cleaners for a thorough job if needed.

4. Make Necessary Repairs

Addressing minor repairs can prevent buyers from negotiating lower prices due to perceived issues. Focus on:

• Fixing leaky faucets

• Replacing cracked tiles

• Patching holes in walls

• Ensuring all lights and appliances are functional

5. Boost Curb Appeal

The exterior of your home is the first thing buyers see. To make a great impression:

• Trim the lawn, bushes, and trees.

• Add fresh mulch and seasonal flowers.

• Clean the driveway, walkway, and porch.

• Consider painting the front door and updating house numbers or the mailbox for a refreshed look.

6. Stage Your Home

Staging highlights your home’s best features and helps buyers visualise its potential. If you’re doing it yourself:

• Arrange furniture to create open, inviting spaces.

• Use neutral colours and minimal decor.

• Add fresh flowers or fruit bowls for a touch of warmth. Professional staging services can further enhance your home’s appeal.

7. Enhance Lighting

Well-lit spaces feel larger and more inviting. Ensure:

• Curtains and blinds are open to let in natural light.

• Light bulbs are consistent in colour and brightness.

• Lamps and overhead lights are turned on during showings.

8. Take High-Quality Photos

In today’s digital age, the first impression of your home often comes from online listings. Invest in professional photography to showcase your home in the best light. Highlight key features like updated kitchens, spacious living areas, or a beautiful backyard.

9. Set the Right Price

An overpriced home can sit on the market for too long, while an underpriced home may not give you the return you deserve. Work with a real estate agent to conduct a comparative market analysis (CMA) and determine the optimal price for your property.

10. Be Flexible with Showings

Make your home available for viewings at different times, including evenings and weekends, to accommodate potential buyers’ schedules. Keep your home clean and tidy at all times to be ready for last-minute showings.

11. Market Effectively

Leverage multiple channels to reach a broader audience. This includes:

• Online listings on popular real estate platforms

• Social media promotion

• Open houses

• Email campaigns targeting local buyers

12. Prepare for Inspections and Appraisals

Once you’ve accepted an offer, your home will likely undergo an inspection and appraisal. Be proactive by addressing any known issues beforehand and keeping all maintenance records organised.

Final Thoughts

Preparing your home for sale takes effort, but the results are well worth it. A clean, well-maintained, and properly priced home is more likely to sell quickly and for the best price. To make the process smoother and less stressful, partner with a trusted realtor who can guide you every step of the way. Good luck!

Ontario has just announced a groundbreaking investment in energy efficiency, setting a new benchmark for sustainability and savings in Canada. The province’s $10.9 billion, 12-year energy efficiency initiative—the largest of its kind in Canadian history—aims to help families and businesses save money while reducing their environmental footprint.

The Home Renovation Savings Program

The flagship of this initiative is the Home Renovation Savings Program, launching on January 28, 2025. This program offers rebates of up to 30% for a variety of home energy efficiency improvements, including:

• New windows and doors

• Insulation and air sealing

• Smart thermostats

• Heat pumps

• Rooftop solar panels and battery storage systems

Later in 2025, the program will expand to include rebates for energy-efficient appliances like refrigerators and freezers. This “one-window” access for upgrades will streamline applications and make the process more accessible for homeowners.

Notably, the program extends eligibility to households using propane or oil for heating—a significant change from previous restrictions that limited rebates to homes heated by electricity.

Empowering Businesses Through Energy Efficiency

In addition to helping homeowners, the province is introducing new energy efficiency incentives for small businesses. Under the expanded Peak Perks Program, businesses such as convenience stores and restaurants can receive:

• An initial $75 incentive upon enrolment

• $20 annually for each eligible smart thermostat connected to a central air conditioning system or heat pump

This initiative complements the 12 existing Save on Energy programs, which cater to a broad spectrum of sectors, including low-income households, municipalities, agriculture, and First Nations communities.

The Impact: Savings, Sustainability, and Economic Growth

By 2036, these programs are expected to cut Ontario’s peak electricity demand by 3,000 MW—the equivalent of removing three million homes from the grid. The investment is projected to generate $23.1 billion in electricity system benefits, saving ratepayers $12.2 billion by avoiding the need for new power generation infrastructure.

“Ontario’s new $10.9 billion energy efficiency investment represents a pivotal step forward for our region's productivity and climate economy,” said Giles Gherson, President and CEO of the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

Moreover, this initiative will stimulate economic growth by creating opportunities for contractors, electricians, HVAC installers, and others involved in energy efficiency retrofits.

A Sustainable Future

Ontario is not just addressing rising energy demand but also taking a strategic approach to long-term energy sustainability. The government’s all-encompassing energy plan includes investments in nuclear energy, new transmission infrastructure, and competitive procurements for clean energy resources.

This bold vision underscores the province’s commitment to affordability, reliability, and sustainability. As Vittoria Bellissimo, President of the Canadian Renewable Energy Association, aptly stated: “These new and enhanced programs create meaningful opportunities for Ontarians to take control of their energy use and reduce costs.”

Why It Matters

The new energy efficiency programs aren’t just about saving money—they’re about empowering Ontarians to make choices that benefit their wallets and the planet. Whether you’re a homeowner planning a renovation or a small business owner looking to cut energy costs, Ontario’s energy efficiency programs offer a win-win solution

Canada’s housing crisis is at a pivotal moment. With the resignation of the current Prime Minister and an upcoming federal election likely to shift power, the trajectory of federal housing policies may soon experience dramatic changes. The choices made in the coming months will shape affordability, availability, and urban development for years to come.

A Legacy of Ambition and Criticism

The current administration has invested heavily in housing programmes aimed at addressing the crisis, such as the Housing Accelerator Fund, Affordable Housing Fund, and Rapid Housing Initiative. Despite these efforts, housing affordability and accessibility have remained out of reach for many Canadians. Critics argue that while the initiatives were ambitious, their execution fell short, leaving municipalities struggling to translate federal funding into tangible results.

A Conservative Vision for Housing Reform

If the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, ascend to power, a significant shift in housing policy is anticipated. Their proposals emphasize cutting bureaucracy, incentivising housing construction, and leveraging market mechanisms to stimulate supply. A centrepiece of their approach is the proposed removal of the goods and services tax (GST) on new homes sold for less than $1 million. This measure, intended to reduce costs for buyers and spur construction, has garnered considerable support from industry stakeholders.

The Conservatives have also floated bold ideas in their Building Homes Not Bureaucracy Act, which seeks to hold municipalities accountable for meeting aggressive housing targets. Cities failing to meet these targets could face clawbacks in federal funding, while those exceeding them would be rewarded. This performance-based funding model aims to drive systemic reform at the municipal level.

Balancing Innovation and Oversight

While the Conservative approach has been praised for its straightforward appeal, questions remain about its scope and efficacy. For instance, the GST rebate on homes is seen as a step in the right direction but may not adequately address high-cost markets like Toronto and Vancouver. Adjustments, such as extending the rebate to homes priced up to $1.5 million, could make the policy more inclusive.

Moreover, programmes like the Housing Accelerator Fund, while criticised for inefficiency, reflect a core federal strategy of using funding to incentivise municipal action. Policymakers must decide whether to overhaul such programmes or abandon them altogether. Striking the right balance between oversight and flexibility will be critical to ensuring these initiatives deliver measurable outcomes.

The Importance of a Comprehensive Plan

One of the pressing concerns is the lack of specific details in proposed Conservative policies. For instance, while the GST cut on purpose-built rental construction aligns with market-friendly principles, its future under a new government remains unclear. A clear, detailed roadmap will be essential for addressing the multifaceted housing crisis effectively.

A Crucial Juncture for Canada

As leadership transitions and electoral campaigns unfold, the direction of federal housing policy hangs in the balance. Canadians will soon face a choice between competing visions—one rooted in ambitious government intervention and another favouring streamlined, market-driven solutions. The stakes are high, with affordability, urban growth, and economic stability on the line.

The coming months will offer critical insights into how each political party plans to address one of Canada’s most pressing challenges. For the housing sector and the millions of Canadians it impacts, clarity and action cannot come soon enough.

As we step into 2025, Canada’s real estate market is poised for a transformative year. After navigating a challenging period marked by high interest rates and sluggish investment activity, signs indicate that the industry is entering a new cycle characterised by renewed investor interest and a more favourable economic environment.

Shifting Market Dynamics

Falling borrowing costs and a stabilising macroeconomic outlook are creating fertile ground for increased activity in the real estate sector. Investors, both domestic and international, are once again setting their sights on Canada, particularly in sectors such as necessity-based retail, industrial properties, and multi-family residential units. Retail properties anchored by grocery stores, for example, have emerged as prime acquisition targets, reflecting a broader trend of prioritising stability and long-term growth.

Meanwhile, residential real estate is expected to rebound strongly, driven by lower interest rates and the return of first-time homebuyers. The housing market, which has weathered prolonged downturns and a housing shortage, is now positioned for recovery. Home prices are projected to rise steadily, offering renewed confidence to buyers and investors alike.

The Role of Individual Investors

The role of individual landlords and small-scale investors is also gaining prominence. Over the past few years, rising interest rates forced many of these investors to the sidelines. However, with borrowing costs decreasing and a growing awareness of real estate as a valuable investment vehicle, more individuals are expressing interest in owning rental properties. This trend underscores the enduring appeal of real estate as a means of wealth creation and financial security.

Opportunities in the Commercial Sector

The commercial real estate sector, particularly office properties, is also showing signs of revitalisation. Suburban office spaces, in particular, have seen an uptick in demand, driven by improving leasing conditions and a preference for high-quality, professionally managed buildings. While challenges remain, particularly in downtown office markets, the gradual recovery in this sector signals a broader shift in investor sentiment.

The Road Ahead

Looking ahead, the real estate market in Canada is set to benefit from a confluence of factors, including:

• Favourable Economic Conditions: As the Bank of Canada’s rate-cutting cycle progresses, borrowing becomes more accessible, incentivising both first-time buyers and seasoned investors.

• Diverse Investment Opportunities: With growth in retail, industrial, and residential sectors, investors have a range of options to diversify their portfolios.

• Steady Home Price Growth: A projected 6% rise in home prices by the end of 2025 highlights the resilience and potential of Canada’s housing market.

While the road to recovery requires patience, the foundation for a new cycle of growth is clearly taking shape. For investors, developers, and homebuyers, 2025 offers a chance to seize emerging opportunities and play a role in shaping the future of Canadian real estate.

As 2025 begins, significant changes are coming to Ontario’s housing landscape. From enhancing tenant protections to embracing sustainable construction, these updates aim to address ongoing challenges in affordability, availability, and fairness. Here’s a look at five key housing laws and regulations taking effect this year.

1. Toronto’s New Rental Renovation Licence By-Law

This by-law is designed to prevent “renovictions,” a practice where landlords evict tenants under the guise of renovations, only to re-list units at higher rents. These actions disproportionately affect low-income and marginalized individuals, often leaving them in precarious housing situations.

To address this, landlords issuing an N13 notice to end a tenancy for renovations must now secure a Rental Renovation Licence. Requirements include:

• Approved building permits.

• A $700 application fee (waived for Multi-Tenant Housing Operators).

• A Tenant Accommodation or Compensation Plan that provides temporary housing or other supports.

When it takes effect: July 31, 2025.

2. Mass Timber Buildings Can Now Reach 18 Storeys

Mass timber construction, known for its sustainability and cost efficiency, is getting a boost with changes to the Ontario Building Code. Developers can now construct buildings as tall as 18 storeys using this innovative material, compared to the previous limit of 12 storeys.

Mass timber is celebrated for its strength, fire resistance, and environmental benefits, making it a popular choice for urban developments. These changes aim to accelerate housing construction while supporting jobs in forestry, engineering, and manufacturing.

When it took effect: January 1, 2025.

3. A Streamlined Ontario Building Code

Ontario’s updated building code simplifies construction processes and aligns more closely with the National Building Code. This harmonization eliminates unnecessary technical differences, reducing barriers for developers and making it easier to meet housing targets.

The updated code resolves over 1,730 variations between provincial and national standards, increasing alignment from 60% to 80%. A three-month grace period is in place for projects already underway under the old code.

When it took effect: January 1, 2025 (grace period ends March 31, 2025).

4. Toronto’s Final Phase of Short-Term Rental By-Laws

Toronto’s efforts to regulate short-term rentals have entered their final phase. These measures aim to preserve long-term rental housing and ensure only primary residences are used for short-term rentals.

The latest rules include:

• Increased registration fees of $375 for short-term rental operators.

• Operators must register as either entire-unit or partial-unit short-term rental operators.

• Partial-unit operators can only rent out one fewer than the total number of bedrooms available in their principal residence and cannot rent the entire dwelling at once.

When it took effect: January 1, 2025.

5. Updates to Household and High Need Income Limits

Income limits for housing assistance have been updated to reflect current data. These limits determine eligibility for support, helping ensure resources are directed to those most in need.

Household Income Limits (HILs) represent the minimum income required to afford housing without spending more than 30% of it on shelter. High Need Income Limits (HNILs) reflect households spending 50% or more of their income on housing.

For example, HNILs for one-bedroom units in Toronto increased from $37,500 to $40,500, while similar adjustments were made in other regions like Durham and Hamilton.

When it took effect: January 1, 2025.

These changes reflect Ontario’s commitment to tackling housing affordability, protecting renters, and supporting sustainable construction. Whether you’re a renter, landlord, or developer, these new rules are set to reshape the housing market in meaningful ways.

As we leave 2024 behind, Canada’s housing and mortgage markets reflect a year of resilience and adaptation. The Bank of Canada’s pivot to rate cuts, following two years of steady hikes, provided much-needed relief to borrowers, setting the stage for what’s to come in 2025.

2025 Housing Market and Interest Rate Outlook

The easing cycle combined with Canada’s resilient economy has helped stabilise the housing market. Modest gains in home sales and prices were seen across the country, though challenges remain. Borrowers renewing mortgages continue to feel the strain of elevated borrowing costs, and housing supply issues keep affordability a top concern for policymakers and buyers alike.

With cautious optimism, here’s what experts forecast for the housing market and interest rates in 2025:

Real Estate Market: Forecasts from Leading Analysts

Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA):

• 2025 Home Sales Forecast: 499,816 (+6.6% YoY)

• 2025 Home Price Forecast: $713,375 (+4.4% YoY)

• Commentary: Sales are expected to remain steady until spring 2025, followed by a sharper rebound. The potential for stronger momentum is forecast beginning in Q2 2025.

Re/Max Canada:

• 2025 National Average Price Increase: +5% YoY

• Commentary: Anticipated rate cuts in late 2024 have set the stage for a more active market in 2025, with sales expected to rise in 33 of 37 regions surveyed, and some areas seeing up to a 25% sales increase.

RBC Economics:

• 2025 Home Resales Forecast: 518,400 (+12.5% YoY)

• 2025 Home Price Forecast by Q4: $809,900 (+1.6% YoY)

• Commentary: Gradual price appreciation is expected until more significant affordability improvements occur following further rate cuts.

TD Economics:

• 2025 Home Sales Growth Forecast: +15.8%

• 2025 Home Price Growth Forecast: +8%

• Commentary: Falling borrowing costs and economic growth will support positive sales growth, bolstered by December’s mortgage rule changes.

Interest Rate Projections

The Bank of Canada is expected to slow its rate-cutting pace in 2025. After five consecutive cuts totalling 175 basis points in 2024, the central bank will likely adopt a meeting-by-meeting approach, influenced by incoming economic data.

• Overnight Rate: Expected to decline further from 3.25%, potentially settling between 2.00% and 3.00% by mid-2025.

• Bond Yields: Likely to remain stable around 3.00%, influencing fixed mortgage rates.

Borrower Impact:

• Variable-Rate Loans: Anticipated to see continued reductions.

• Fixed-Rate Mortgages: Predicted to stabilise, offering more predictability for borrowers.

Big 6 Banks: Latest Interest Rate and Bond Yield Forecasts

Final Thoughts

While 2025’s housing and interest rate outlook is cautiously optimistic, challenges remain. Borrowers and buyers should prepare for gradual improvements, keeping a close eye on economic data and policy changes. For those in the market, the coming year could present a window of opportunity as affordability begins to improve and competition intensifies.

The Housing Market Outlook for 2025

Canada’s housing market has been a challenging landscape for prospective homebuyers over the past few years. Affordability issues remain a persistent obstacle, but as we step into 2025, changes in mortgage rules, lower borrowing costs, and regional market dynamics might provide some relief for those looking to enter the market. Here’s a detailed look at what’s expected in the year ahead.

Mortgage Rule Changes: A Boost for First-Time Buyers

One of the most significant changes impacting the 2025 housing market stems from Ottawa’s late-2024 policy adjustments. These include expanded access to insured mortgages and the introduction of 30-year amortizations for certain buyers. Here’s how these changes work:

1. 30-Year Amortizations: First-time homebuyers or those purchasing newly built homes they plan to live in can now opt for a 30-year mortgage. This extension lowers monthly payments, making it easier to qualify for a mortgage, although it increases the total interest paid over the loan’s lifetime.

2. Higher Insured Mortgage Price Cap: The maximum price for an insured mortgage has risen from $1 million to $1.5 million. This change allows buyers to put down less than 20% upfront on homes within this new range, significantly reducing the savings needed to enter the market. For example, a $1.5 million home now requires a minimum down payment of $125,000 instead of $300,000.

Real estate agents like Elliott Chun from Vancouver have hailed these adjustments as game changers. The new rules could allow buyers in expensive markets like Vancouver to transition from condos to more spacious townhomes suitable for growing families. However, critics warn that increased purchasing power might drive prices higher, potentially offsetting short-term affordability gains.

Shifts in Mortgage Renewals

Another change expected to influence the housing market is the easing of stress test requirements for uninsured mortgage renewals. The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) has announced that Canadians switching lenders won’t have to requalify under the stress test, encouraging competition and potentially leading to better rates for homeowners.

The Bank of Canada’s Rate Decisions

The Bank of Canada’s actions in 2024—cutting its policy rate five times—have set the stage for a more favourable borrowing environment in 2025. While further cuts are anticipated, they are likely to be modest. Fixed mortgage rates, influenced by bond market expectations, are expected to remain in the mid-to-low 4% range, while variable rates should continue their gradual decline. However, industry experts caution that overall affordability remains limited as high home prices persist.

Predicted Home Price Trends

Home prices are projected to climb in 2025, with Re/Max Canada forecasting a 6% increase in the average price. Single-family detached homes are expected to see a 7% rise, reaching just over $900,000, while condos are set to grow by 3.5%, hitting $605,993. The influx of new condo completions may offer more options for first-time buyers, particularly in urban markets.

Market Dynamics and Regional Variations

Realtors are suggesting the potential for a more stable housing market in 2025, with less dramatic booms or busts. Yet, regional disparities will play a significant role. In cities like Vancouver, where demand for detached homes remains strong and inventory tight, competition is likely to intensify. Conversely, the condo market may soften as increased supply and downward pressure on rents create more opportunities for buyers.

The Broader Economic Context

Canada’s sluggish economy and potential trade disputes with the U.S. could dampen the housing market’s momentum. Rising unemployment or economic instability would likely curb homebuying activity. Additionally, many Canadians renewing their mortgages in 2025 will face higher rates, potentially impacting household spending and economic growth.

What to Expect in 2025

The combination of new mortgage rules, lower borrowing costs, and regional trends sets the stage for a more dynamic housing market in 2025. While affordability challenges persist, the outlook suggests increased activity, particularly among first-time buyers. The spring market is expected to be especially competitive, driven by improved accessibility and pent-up demand.

For Canadians navigating this evolving landscape, the key will be understanding how these changes align with personal financial circumstances and long-term goals. With careful planning and a keen eye on market trends, 2025 could be a year of opportunity for prospective homebuyers across the country.

In recent years, condominiums in Canada have been central to the conversation about housing. As the need for more affordable housing grows, condos have often been seen as a critical part of the solution. However, 2024 has shown that the condo market, particularly in major cities like Toronto and Vancouver, has encountered significant struggles, raising questions about the future of new developments and housing availability in the country.

A Challenging Year for the Condo Market

The condo sector, once celebrated as the go-to solution for urban housing needs, has faced a dramatic downturn this year. With soaring interest rates, construction delays, and a shifting economic environment, the once-booming condo market has faltered. Experts agree that a combination of factors, such as rising borrowing costs and an oversaturation of supply, has created what many are calling a "perfect storm."

In the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), one of Canada's busiest condo markets, the year began on a particularly grim note. By January 2024, Canada had already experienced 10 interest rate hikes, which significantly impacted both the purchasing power of potential buyers and their sentiment. The new condo segment was hit especially hard, with more than 40 projects either delayed or put on hold. This number only continued to grow, reaching a staggering 76 by mid-year. The result? A market that’s quieter than ever, with fewer buyers and fewer new units coming to market.

According to Shaun Hildebrand, President of Urbanation, the situation in Toronto is dire. Condo resales have plummeted to their lowest levels since 2008, and the pre-sale market—largely driven by investors—has slowed to a crawl. “We’re on track for the slowest year in almost three decades,” Hildebrand notes, with fewer than 5,000 pre-sale condo transactions expected, a far cry from the 22,000 average sales seen in previous years.

Investor Exodus and the Pain of Pre-Sales

One of the most notable trends in 2024 is the significant pullback by investors, who were once integral to the pre-sale condo market. With interest rates rising and prices softening, many investors have simply walked away. As a result, construction projects are facing delays and cancellations, while those who are still holding on to their investments face escalating defaults and financial distress.

Real estate lawyer Mark Morris has been vocal about the challenges facing the new construction market. "People who bought condos in 2020 or 2021 are struggling to close," he says. "Defaults are up, and in certain areas, like ‘dog crate’ condos, prices have dropped significantly."

Builders are also feeling the strain. As construction costs rise and the market cools, many are unable to justify continuing new projects. This, combined with the growing financial burden imposed by municipalities in the form of development charges (DCs), means fewer new condo developments are being initiated. In Toronto, these charges were increased twice in 2024 alone, further discouraging construction.

A Coming Crisis?

The slowdown in condo development in Toronto is just one part of a larger, national issue. Across Canada, particularly in cities like Vancouver, the narrative has been largely the same. In Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, the condo market has seen a consistent decline. By the end of 2024, presale transactions in the region are expected to fall 30% below the 10-year average, with fewer new projects being launched. This is a worrying trend for the housing market, especially as demand for condos continues to rise.

Garde MacDonald, Director of Advisory at MLA Canada, highlights the bleak outlook for the region: "Rents have been softening, prices have stayed flat, and the buyers who existed at the start of the year are largely the same buyers that exist today." With many investors pulling back due to changing government policies and growing bureaucracy, the future of condo construction is uncertain.

Looking Ahead: Fewer Units, Higher Prices?

The biggest concern for many in the industry is what the future holds for condo supply. Experts like Jared Menkes, Executive Vice President at Menkes, warn that the current slowdown in condo development will lead to a "crisis" in the coming years. "If we don’t start projects in 2025, there will be no new deliveries in 2028," he says, pointing out the lengthy timelines required for high-rise construction.

This supply shortage could lead to even higher prices for the condos that do come to market. With fewer new projects being initiated, there will be less inventory available, and that, in turn, could make affordability even more elusive for would-be buyers and renters.

The Bottom Line: A New Era for Condos?

The condo market’s struggles in 2024 have exposed deeper issues in Canada’s housing sector. The combination of rising interest rates, investor pullback, and municipal policy changes has created a perfect storm, stalling many new developments and pushing the market into a holding pattern.

The coming years could see a significant reduction in condo supply, particularly in major markets like Toronto and Vancouver. While this might lead to higher prices in the short term, it could also exacerbate the affordability crisis that many Canadians are already grappling with.

As the government and industry stakeholders work to address these challenges, it remains to be seen whether the condo market can recover or if it will continue its downward spiral. For now, the future of Canada’s condo market is uncertain, and all eyes are on the developers, investors, and policymakers who will ultimately shape its path forward.

Bank of Canada. It all felt like the makings of a rebound. But the lingering question remains: Are we there yet?

A Long and Uncertain Journey

Instead of a straightforward path to recovery, the Canadian real estate market has felt more like an endless road trip, complete with false starts and fleeting signs of progress. For years, the narrative of “buyers on the sidelines” has dominated industry conversations, waiting for just the right conditions to re-enter the market. But what truly drives these buyers back in? The answer seems to hinge on whether prices are moving up or down.

"Buy the Dip"

The concept of "buying the dip" has gained traction, particularly among those hoping to time the market's bottom. Yet, the adage "time in the market, not timing the market" echoes for a reason. If you aim to hit the market’s lowest point, you need to be active as prices are falling. Ironically, those waiting for the dip often realize they’ve missed it, with prices already rebounding after months of declines.

This dynamic creates an important takeaway: market participants don’t just observe the market—they shape it. Buyers submitting below-market offers during downturns essentially create the dip rather than merely benefiting from it.

Recovery or Relief Rally?

Up until recently, market data suggested no clear signs of recovery. However, September saw a surprising deviation from seasonal norms, breaking away from the usual back-to-school rush. This trend continued into November, a month traditionally marked by a slowdown, with sales and prices both rising.

According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales climbed 2.8% in November compared to October, amounting to an 18.4% increase since May. Sidelined buyers appear to be re-entering the market, spurred by lower rates and improved affordability.

Buyer Activity Heats Up

Unsurprisingly, activity remains strongest in major markets such as Greater Toronto, Metro Vancouver, Calgary, and Montreal. Smaller cities in Alberta and Ontario have also reported double-digit increases in sales. This resurgence raises the question: Is this the beginning of a sustained recovery or merely a short-term response to policy changes?

While the market looks more like pre-pandemic norms (2016-2019), it feels inflated compared to last year’s lows and subdued compared to the pandemic-era highs.

Sellers Regain the Advantage

For sellers, the market has tilted firmly in their favor. The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) rose to 59.2% in November, up from the 52%-53% range earlier this year. With new listings down 0.8% month-over-month, buyers face increasing competition for a shrinking pool of homes.

The months of inventory metric dropped to 3.7 months nationally, the lowest in over a year. A balanced market typically requires 4-6 months of inventory, underscoring the imbalance between supply and demand.

Rising Prices: Genuine Growth or Illusion?

November marked a turning point for home prices, with the National Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) rising 0.6% from October. The actual national average sale price also jumped 7.4% compared to November 2023. Despite these gains, the HPI remains 1.2% lower year-over-year, signaling that the market hasn’t fully recovered from the downturn caused by earlier rate hikes.

This fragile recovery remains susceptible to external shocks, including future rate adjustments, economic policy changes, and broader economic uncertainties.

Supply Challenges Persist

By November’s end, Canada had just over 160,000 properties listed for sale, 8.9% more than a year ago but still below the long-term average of 178,000. While some interpret this as a structural supply deficiency, others see potential room for growth.

Notably, active listings have trended upward since the rate-hiking cycle began, indicating that supply is gradually improving but still falling short of meeting demand.

Spring Market: A Crucial Test

The upcoming spring market will likely play a pivotal role in determining the direction of Canadian real estate. Traditionally the busiest season, it often sets the tone for the year. However, potential headwinds—including recession fears, declining population growth, and rising unemployment—could dampen buyer enthusiasm. These challenges may counteract the optimism generated by lower borrowing costs.

Final Thoughts

Lower interest rates often serve as a temporary boost to the housing market, but they fail to address the underlying disparity between incomes and house prices. This leaves many buyers, particularly first-time buyers, struggling to compete. While rising home values benefit sellers and existing homeowners, they further widen the gap between the haves and have-nots.

The road to recovery for Canadian real estate remains uncertain. While recent momentum provides hope, it’s clear that the journey is far from over. The market must navigate a delicate balance of economic pressures, policy shifts, and buyer sentiment to sustain meaningful growth.