As we await the Bank of Canada's (BoC) interest rate announcement this Wednesday, homeowners, buyers, and sellers in Burlington, especially in sought-after neighbourhoods like Roseland, Shoreacres, and Aldershot, are watching closely. But even a rate cut might not be enough to shake the housing market out of its spring slowdown.
The Canadian real estate landscape is currently grappling with more than just borrowing costs. Uncertainty stemming from renewed trade tensions — specifically U.S. President Donald Trump's surprise imposition of tariffs on Canadian goods — has introduced a wave of economic doubt that’s trickling directly into buyer confidence.
According to industry experts, including Kingsley Ma of RE/MAX Canada, “All the buyers are on the sidelines because of the uncertainty.” It’s not just about mortgage rates anymore. “If you can't pay the bills, it doesn't matter what the interest rate is,” he told Yahoo Finance Canada.
This sentiment is being echoed across the country, but here in southern Burlington, where real estate activity is often driven by move-up buyers, professionals, and retirees downsizing into luxury townhomes or lakeside condos, the market feels particularly frozen. Even those who are financially prepared are pausing — not because they can't qualify for a mortgage, but because they’re unsure what tomorrow might bring.
The Spring Market That Never Was
Typically, April kicks off one of the busiest real estate seasons of the year. But 2025 is shaping up differently. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported a 4.4% drop in sales from February to March. Compared to March 2024, national home sales were down 9.3% — the weakest March since 2009. Ontario and British Columbia bore the brunt of the slowdown, though small markets across Canada weren't immune either.
Locally, we're seeing listings linger longer, open houses draw smaller crowds, and motivated sellers make strategic price adjustments to capture dwindling buyer attention.
Even the BoC’s last rate cut in March failed to re-energize the market. With the overnight rate holding at 2.75% (for now), some economists expect another cut — but not everyone agrees it will make a difference.
Fixed vs. Variable: What Burlington Buyers Need to Consider
For Burlington buyers still planning to make a move in 2025, choosing between a fixed or variable rate mortgage is more nuanced than ever. Variable rates have declined in popularity, now accounting for just 20-25% of new home financing, according to mortgage brokers. With fixed rates consistently below 4%, many are opting for the security of predictable payments — especially in uncertain times.
Mortgage brokers suggest that the future holds two plausible scenarios: a significant rate cut if the economy falters, or a potential increase in rates if inflation heats up. Either way, the prudent approach is to understand your own financial comfort zone.
Financial planners are comparing the fixed-versus-variable decision to choosing an investment strategy. “It’s about risk tolerance,” she explains. “If you panic when markets fall, then a variable mortgage may not be for you.”
Renewals: A Silver Lining
The outlook is somewhat more positive for homeowners renewing their mortgages this year. Ho notes that the current rate environment offers a sense of stability — perhaps even relief — compared to the rate spikes of 2023 and early 2024. Renewing into a lower or stable rate can be an opportunity to revisit long-term financial goals.
What's Next for Burlington’s Housing Market?
Here in Burlington — where lifestyle, schools, and proximity to Toronto continue to make our communities attractive — the fundamentals remain strong. But buyer psychology is fragile. Until the tariff situation resolves and broader economic clarity returns, we’re likely to see a “wait and see” approach dominate.
Even if the trade war ends tomorrow, confidence won’t snap back overnight and people will need time to settle in… to build that confidence back up.
For sellers, this means being strategic. Price appropriately, prepare your home meticulously, and work with a REALTOR® who knows how to market your property in a cautious market. For buyers, this could be a rare window of opportunity to negotiate favourably — especially if you're planning for the long term.
