Ontario's housing crisis is even more urgent than originally thought. According to newly released government documents obtained by CBC News, the province may need to build as many as 2.1 million new homes by 2031—a significant increase from the current target of 1.5 million. This updated projection reflects not just population growth, but also a widening gap between supply and demand that's putting affordability even further out of reach for many Ontarians.
So, what does this mean if you’re looking to buy or sell a home in Burlington, Oakville, or the surrounding communities?
The Shortfall in Supply Is Driving Market Volatility
The province has added 1.2 million people since 2021, yet home construction is falling short of the 100,000 new builds needed annually to hit the current targets—let alone the revised goal. With high construction costs, skilled labour shortages, and development delays, inventory remains tight. For buyers, that means less choice and more competition, especially for move-in ready or well-located homes. And while the condo market in some cities is seeing a temporary slowdown, suburban and family-friendly markets like ours remain resilient.
If you’re a buyer, that’s a strong signal to act now. Prices may have stabilized for the time being, but demand is expected to rebound. Delaying your purchase could mean facing steeper price increases and bidding wars when the market picks up again.
Sellers Still Hold the Advantage—But Strategic Pricing Matters
For sellers, this ongoing imbalance creates opportunity. While the headlines focus on falling sales volumes, well-presented and appropriately priced homes are still moving—often quickly. Buyers are cautious but motivated, especially in established neighbourhoods with access to good schools, transit, and amenities.
With fewer new homes coming to market than needed, existing homes—particularly renovated or updated properties—will continue to command strong interest. However, pricing strategy is critical. Overpricing in a data-savvy market can lead to extended days on market, even when demand is high.
What Comes Next: Policy, Construction, and Your Real Estate Goals
New legislation like Ontario’s Bill 17 aims to accelerate construction by reducing development charges and speeding up approvals, but real progress will take years. In the meantime, local buyers and sellers must navigate a market where policy ambitions are far ahead of practical outcomes.
