A Tale of Two Markets: Toronto vs. The Rest of Ontario
One of the most notable trends is the divergence between Toronto and the rest of Ontario. While condominiums account for only 25% of property transfers across the province, they make up a substantial 60% in Toronto. This increase is partly driven by a surge in new condo units entering the market. In 2024, around 15,000 newly built condo units became available—78% more than in 2023—impacting the resale market and contributing to slower sales in that segment.
Multi-Property Owners Scale Back Investments
Multi-property owners (MPOs), once dominant in Ontario’s housing market, have reduced their purchasing activity since peaking in 2022. Although they still play a significant role, most MPOs own just two or three properties, indicating that individual investors, rather than large institutions, are the primary players. Notably, millennials now make up nearly 40% of MPOs, surpassing Gen Xers.
However, large-scale investors—those with portfolios of 11 or more properties—have seen their market share drop from 13% in April 2022 to just 7.2% today. This decline reflects efforts to downsize portfolios in response to higher interest rates and market uncertainties. Yet, well-funded investors are still active in Toronto, with 30% of MPO purchases made without a mortgage.
Recent Buyers Face Losses
The market correction has been particularly challenging for those who purchased properties at peak prices in 2022 and 2023. Among homes bought during this period and sold in 2024, one in four transactions resulted in a loss. The median loss across Ontario was approximately $45,000, rising to $56,000 in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and a steep $240,000 in Muskoka.
First-Time Buyers Are Getting Older
Homeowners Are Staying Put Longer
Ontario homeowners are holding onto their properties longer, with fewer moving from one primary residence to another. Between 2011 and 2024, the average holding period for condos increased from just under seven years to over eight years, while non-condo properties saw an increase from 11 years to 12.5 years. In Toronto, non-condo owners now hold their homes for nearly 18 years on average, up from 13.8 years in 2014.
Looking Ahead
With continued uncertainty around interest rates, economic conditions, and mortgage policies, Ontario’s housing market is likely to remain in flux. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, investor, or homeowner considering your next move, understanding these evolving trends can help you make informed decisions in today’s complex real estate landscape.
