As 2024 winds down, the Canadian housing market is showing signs of resilience, with home sales continuing to climb. November 2024 saw a notable 2.8% increase in home sales compared to October, extending the growth that began in the previous month. This uptick reflects a broader recovery, as national home sales are now 18.4% higher than they were back in May, just before interest rate cuts started to impact the market.
Key Factors Driving the Market Rebound
The November surge in sales was particularly noticeable in major urban centres, including Greater Vancouver, Calgary, Greater Toronto, and Montreal. Smaller cities in Alberta and Ontario also saw impressive double-digit increases in home sales. Shaun Cathcart, Senior Economist at the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), attributes the rise to a combination of factors, including lower borrowing costs and increased inventory, which have encouraged more buyers to enter the market.
"Not only were sales up again, but with market conditions tightening, prices began to rise at the national level for the first time in over a year and a half," said Cathcart. He noted that while it's typical to see a slowdown in the market before spring, the Bank of Canada's recent interest rate cut and the loosening of mortgage rules could lead to a more active winter market than usual.
Home Prices See Modest Increase
In addition to rising sales, home prices are also showing signs of upward movement. The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose by 0.6% in November from October—the largest month-over-month increase since July 2024. This marks a significant shift, as prices had been largely stagnant or falling for much of the past year.
However, despite the monthly gains, the HPI remains down 1.2% compared to November 2023, highlighting ongoing year-over-year price pressures. Meanwhile, the actual national average sale price stood at $694,411 in November 2024, which represents a 7.4% increase from the previous year.
November 2024 Highlights
Here’s a closer look at some of the key statistics for the Canadian housing market in November:
National home sales rose 2.8% month-over-month.
Home sales were up 26% year-over-year when compared to November 2023.
New listings declined slightly by 0.5% from October to November.
National MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) increased by 0.6%, though it was still down 1.2% year-over-year.
The national average sale price increased by 7.4% year-over-year, reaching $694,411.
Sales-to-new listings ratio increased to 59.2%, up from 57.3% in October, indicating tighter market conditions.
With fewer new listings in November—down 0.5% from October—the sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 59.2%, moving closer to balanced market conditions. This figure is above the long-term average of 55%, which suggests that demand is outpacing supply in some regions.
What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?
For prospective homebuyers, these trends indicate that the market is becoming more competitive, particularly in urban centres and regions with tighter inventory. With fewer properties available for sale, buyers may need to act quickly and be prepared for potential bidding wars, especially in sought-after locations.
For sellers, this is an encouraging sign. The combination of rising home prices and lower inventory means that it may be a good time to list. However, it's important for sellers to work closely with a local REALTOR® to ensure their property is priced appropriately for the current market conditions.
Looking Ahead: A More Active Winter Market?
As we head into 2025, the outlook for the Canadian real estate market remains cautiously optimistic. The Bank of Canada's recent interest rate cut has helped reduce borrowing costs, making homeownership more accessible to some buyers. Additionally, changes to mortgage rules could further fuel market activity in the coming months, potentially leading to a busier-than-usual winter.
For anyone considering buying or selling a home, consulting with a REALTOR® is always the first step to understand the local market dynamics and get expert advice tailored to your specific needs.
Final Thoughts
While Canadian home prices are still slightly below their levels from last year, the market is showing clear signs of recovery. Increased home sales, tightening inventory, and rising prices suggest that the housing market is starting to rebound after a period of uncertainty. Whether you're looking to buy or sell, staying informed and working with a trusted real estate professional can help you navigate this evolving market.
