Ontario is experiencing a troubling rise in mortgage delinquencies, with missed payments reaching levels significantly higher than pre-pandemic figures. According to Equifax Canada’s Q4 2024 Market Pulse Consumer Credit Trends Report, over 11,000 Ontario mortgages missed a payment in the last quarter of 2024—a nearly threefold increase from 2022.

The Growing Divide: Financial Stability vs. Distress

While some Canadians are benefiting from lower interest rates, others are struggling under mounting debt. The report, titled Stable versus Struggling: Canada’s Financial Divide Widens, highlights that provinces like Ontario and British Columbia—where the cost of living is high—are facing the most financial strain. Younger and lower-income individuals are bearing the brunt of this pressure, with many falling behind on their financial obligations.

Rebecca Oakes, Vice-President of Advanced Analytics at Equifax Canada, explains that homeowners in Ontario are facing increased financial stress, particularly those with lower savings buffers. Meanwhile, renters and non-homeowners—especially young and low-income individuals—are also struggling with growing financial burdens.

Mortgage Delinquencies Skyrocket in Ontario

The report reveals alarming statistics:

• Ontario mortgage delinquencies were over 50% higher than pre-pandemic levels in Q4 2024.

• Over 11,000 mortgages in the province missed a payment—almost three times the number seen in 2022.

• The 90+ day mortgage balance delinquency rate surged 90.2% year-over-year to 0.22%.

• The 90+ day non-mortgage balance delinquency rate jumped 46.1% year-over-year.

By comparison, British Columbia saw a 37.7% increase in mortgage delinquencies, Quebec 41.2%, and the Atlantic provinces 15.7%. Other regions like Alberta (3.6%) and the Prairies (0.6%) experienced more stable delinquency rates.

Interest Rate Pressures and Renewals in 2025

One of the major concerns for homeowners is the ongoing pressure of higher interest rates. While rates have begun to drop, they remain significantly higher than the ultra-low rates many homeowners secured before or during the pandemic. This disparity—often 100 to 200 basis points—will cause financial strain for those renewing their mortgages in 2025.

An estimated one million mortgage-holders will see their terms end this year, facing much higher interest rates. In Q4 2024 alone, one in four mortgage-holders saw their monthly payments increase by over $150 upon renewal.

Although mortgage stress tests aim to ensure borrowers can withstand rate increases, many homeowners are now dealing with the added burden of rising living costs. The combination of higher mortgage payments and increased day-to-day expenses could push more borrowers into financial distress.

A Silver Lining? New Mortgage Activity and Potential Rate Cuts

Despite these challenges, there are some positive trends in the mortgage market:

• New mortgage originations rose 39% year-over-year in Q4 2024.

• First-time homebuyer activity increased 28.2% compared to the lows of Q4 2023.

• Average monthly mortgage payments dropped 7.9% (or $200) to $2,330.

However, first-time buyers are still paying 6.6% more than they were a year ago, highlighting the continued affordability struggles in Ontario.

External Economic Pressures: The Impact of U.S. Tariffs

Looking ahead, the Canadian economy could face additional challenges from potential U.S. tariffs. If imposed, these tariffs could slow economic growth, reduce investment, and lead to job losses. While the Bank of Canada might respond with further interest rate cuts to offset these effects, such a move would come in response to economic hardships that could negatively impact homeowners.

How Ontario Homeowners Can Prepare

With mortgage delinquencies on the rise, it’s crucial for homeowners to take proactive steps to safeguard their financial health:

• Review Your Budget: Factor in potential mortgage payment increases and identify areas to cut costs.

• Consider Early Renewal Options: Locking in a rate before further increases may help mitigate payment shocks.

• Build an Emergency Fund: A financial cushion can provide relief in case of unexpected expenses.

• Seek Professional Advice: Mortgage brokers and financial advisors can offer strategies tailored to your specific situation.

While Ontario’s real estate market remains active, the financial strain on many homeowners is real. Staying informed and preparing for potential rate hikes can help mitigate financial challenges in the months ahead.

A Tale of Two Markets: Toronto vs. The Rest of Ontario

One of the most notable trends is the divergence between Toronto and the rest of Ontario. While condominiums account for only 25% of property transfers across the province, they make up a substantial 60% in Toronto. This increase is partly driven by a surge in new condo units entering the market. In 2024, around 15,000 newly built condo units became available—78% more than in 2023—impacting the resale market and contributing to slower sales in that segment.

Multi-Property Owners Scale Back Investments

Multi-property owners (MPOs), once dominant in Ontario’s housing market, have reduced their purchasing activity since peaking in 2022. Although they still play a significant role, most MPOs own just two or three properties, indicating that individual investors, rather than large institutions, are the primary players. Notably, millennials now make up nearly 40% of MPOs, surpassing Gen Xers.

However, large-scale investors—those with portfolios of 11 or more properties—have seen their market share drop from 13% in April 2022 to just 7.2% today. This decline reflects efforts to downsize portfolios in response to higher interest rates and market uncertainties. Yet, well-funded investors are still active in Toronto, with 30% of MPO purchases made without a mortgage.

Recent Buyers Face Losses

The market correction has been particularly challenging for those who purchased properties at peak prices in 2022 and 2023. Among homes bought during this period and sold in 2024, one in four transactions resulted in a loss. The median loss across Ontario was approximately $45,000, rising to $56,000 in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and a steep $240,000 in Muskoka.

First-Time Buyers Are Getting Older

Homeowners Are Staying Put Longer

Ontario homeowners are holding onto their properties longer, with fewer moving from one primary residence to another. Between 2011 and 2024, the average holding period for condos increased from just under seven years to over eight years, while non-condo properties saw an increase from 11 years to 12.5 years. In Toronto, non-condo owners now hold their homes for nearly 18 years on average, up from 13.8 years in 2014.

Looking Ahead

With continued uncertainty around interest rates, economic conditions, and mortgage policies, Ontario’s housing market is likely to remain in flux. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, investor, or homeowner considering your next move, understanding these evolving trends can help you make informed decisions in today’s complex real estate landscape.

Canada's housing market experienced a slowdown in January as home sales dropped and new property listings surged. According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), economic uncertainty, particularly surrounding potential tariffs and trade tensions with the United States, played a key role in this shift.

Key Market Trends

• Sales Decline: National home sales fell by 3.3% from December to January.

• Listings Surge: Newly listed properties increased by 11%, the largest jump since the late 1980s, excluding pandemic-related fluctuations.

• Price Movement: The national average home price rose 1.1% year over year to $670,064. However, CREA’s Home Price Index remained relatively flat due to ongoing softness in Ontario and British Columbia.

The national inventory stood at 4.2 months at the end of January, indicating a balanced market, as defined by CREA’s range of 3.6 to 6.5 months. However, the sales-to-new listings ratio dropped to 49.3%, placing it at the lower end of the balanced range (45% to 65%).

Economic Outlook and Buyer Opportunities

The Bank of Canada’s recent interest rate cut—lowering its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3%—may encourage more buyers to enter the market. Analysts predict further rate reductions throughout the year, which, coupled with softening prices, could create favourable conditions for buyers.

CREA Chair James Mabey anticipates increased real estate activity in the spring but cautions that ongoing trade tensions could impact the market. “While uncertainty about the economy and jobs will no doubt keep some prospective buyers on the sidelines, a softer pricing environment alongside lower interest rates will be an opportunity for others,” Mabey stated.

Looking Ahead

As spring approaches, the Canadian real estate market is expected to see more activity, driven by seasonal trends and potential interest rate cuts. However, the lingering threat of a trade war and its broader economic effects will remain a key factor to watch. Buyers and sellers alike should stay informed and consider how these market dynamics may impact their decisions.

The Canadian housing market experienced a significant shift in January, with new property listings soaring while home sales took a hit. According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), uncertainty around U.S. tariffs and a potential trade war played a major role in softening sales activity.

Record-Breaking Increase in Listings

January saw an 11% month-over-month increase in newly listed properties—the largest seasonally adjusted jump in new supply on record dating back to the late 1980s. Typically, winter is a slower season for real estate, making this surge in listings even more unusual.

Meanwhile, national home sales declined by 3.3% compared to December. CREA’s senior economist, Shaun Cathcart, attributed this drop to uncertainty surrounding tariffs, stating, “The timing of that change in demand leaves little doubt as to the cause—uncertainty around tariffs.” This combination of increasing supply and softer demand has shifted market conditions, especially in British Columbia and Ontario.

Home Prices Hold Steady Despite Market Changes

Despite the shifts in supply and demand, home prices remained relatively stable. The non-seasonally adjusted national average home price rose 1.1% year-over-year to $670,064 in January. However, the National Composite MLS Home Price Index has remained largely unchanged over the past year due to ongoing market softness in Ontario and B.C.

While these two provinces continue to be the most expensive places to buy a home, their average residential prices declined in January. B.C. saw a 3.8% drop, while Ontario experienced a more significant 6.2% decrease. On the other hand, other regions showed positive price growth, with Quebec leading at a 7.3% increase. The Prairies saw modest gains, including 0.4% in Alberta, 0.7% in Saskatchewan, and 0.3% in Manitoba. The Atlantic provinces also saw some movement, with Newfoundland experiencing a notable 5.8% price increase.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

With a surge in new listings and a slowdown in sales, buyers may find more opportunities and negotiating power in the coming months. On the flip side, sellers may need to adjust expectations, particularly in softer markets like B.C. and Ontario.

As tariff uncertainties continue to loom, it remains to be seen how the market will react in the longer term. For now, those looking to buy or sell in 2025 should stay informed and work with real estate professionals to navigate the shifting landscape.

Canada's housing market kicked off 2025 with a positive sign, as the annual pace of housing starts rose by three per cent in January compared to December. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), this increase was primarily driven by a surge in multi-unit construction projects in Québec and British Columbia.

A Promising Start to the Year

The CMHC reported a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 239,739 housing starts in January, up from 232,492 in December. The increase was fuelled by urban housing starts, which also grew by three per cent to reach 220,643 units.

A closer look at multi-unit urban starts, including apartments, condominiums, and townhouses, showed an impressive eight per cent rise. This growth was particularly strong in Montréal and Vancouver, where purpose-built rental projects contributed significantly to the upswing. Montréal alone experienced a staggering 112 per cent year-over-year increase in housing starts, while Vancouver saw a 37 per cent jump.

However, the picture was not uniformly positive across the country. Toronto saw a sharp decline, with housing starts plummeting by 41 per cent compared to January 2024. The drop was attributed to a slowdown in multi-unit construction in the city.

Meanwhile, rural housing starts were estimated at 19,096 units, contributing to the overall increase in new construction.

Long-Term Outlook and Trade Risks

Despite the positive momentum in January, CMHC cautioned that housing starts are expected to slow between 2025 and 2027. The primary reason for this projected decline is a decrease in condominium developments, as investor interest weakens and demand from young families stabilizes.

Adding to the uncertainty are foreign trade risks, particularly potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods. CMHC deputy chief economist Tania Bourassa-Ochoa highlighted that these risks pose "significant uncertainty for housing construction going forward."

The agency's latest market outlook suggests that while home sales and prices are expected to recover this year due to improved borrowing conditions, external factors could cloud the longer-term forecast. A potential trade war between Canada and the U.S. could slow economic growth and limit housing activity. If high tariffs were imposed, inflation could temporarily rise, prompting the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates in an effort to support the economy. However, this scenario could also prolong a housing market recovery, leading to delayed home purchases and fewer housing starts overall.

What This Means for Buyers and Builders

For prospective homebuyers, the early-year increase in housing starts could signal more supply coming to market, potentially easing some affordability pressures. However, ongoing trade risks and potential economic slowdowns could impact borrowing costs and market confidence in the long run.

For developers, the current surge in multi-unit construction—especially in cities like Montréal and Vancouver—reflects strong demand for rental housing. But the broader economic uncertainties mean that builders should keep a close eye on trade policies and market shifts that could influence future construction activity.

Conclusion

While January's rise in housing starts is an encouraging sign, the market's trajectory remains uncertain. As economic conditions evolve, particularly in relation to trade agreements and interest rates, both buyers and builders will need to stay informed and adaptable. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether this positive trend can be sustained or if external pressures will slow the pace of new home construction.

With much of Ontario waking up to a fresh blanket of snow, many residents will be reaching for their shovels to clear sidewalks and driveways. But if you’re renting your home, you might be wondering: Is snow removal your responsibility or your landlord’s?

The $500 Question: Who Has to Shovel?

Failing to clear snow outside your home can result in fines, but responsibility for snow removal depends on the lease agreement and Ontario’s Residential Tenancies Act (RTA). According to Section 20(1) of the RTA, landlords must maintain rental properties in a good state of repair and comply with safety and maintenance standards. This has been interpreted by courts to include snow removal for common areas.

What If Your Lease Says You’re Responsible?

Some lease agreements state that snow removal is the tenant’s responsibility. However, unless the snow-covered areas are exclusively used by the tenant, such clauses are generally unenforceable. If a landlord wants to transfer responsibility for clearing exterior common areas to a tenant, it must be done through a separate contract, much like hiring a third party for maintenance.

This was highlighted in the 2009 Ontario court case Montgomery v. Van. A tenant sued after slipping near her basement apartment. While her lease required her to clear her walkway, the court ruled that snow removal responsibility must be assigned through a separate agreement, with clear terms such as removal timelines, equipment provisions, and potential rent reductions for the added labour.

Snow Removal Rules in Toronto

In Toronto, residents must clear snow within 12 hours after a snowfall ends if accumulation is less than 2 cm. If the accumulation exceeds 2 cm, the city’s snow removal services will handle clearing major roads and sidewalks, but property owners are still responsible for ensuring their own walkways and driveways are safe and accessible. Failing to do so could result in a fine of $500, plus a $115 surcharge, for a total of $615.

Bottom Line

If you’re a tenant, check your lease agreement—but also remember that unless you’ve signed a separate contract agreeing to handle snow removal for common areas, it’s likely your landlord’s responsibility. If you’re a landlord, ensure compliance with local snow removal bylaws to avoid fines and potential legal issues.

Stay safe, and happy shovelling!

Millennials have emerged as the most influential group of home buyers in Canada, significantly impacting the housing market. Representing the largest share of buyers, 56% of homebuyers aged 25 to 34 and 30% of those aged 35 to 44 are actively purchasing homes, according to the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation. With many millennials now reaching key life milestones—forming partnerships, starting families, and seeking long-term investments—their preferences are shaping the future of real estate.

Lower Down Payments Make Homeownership More Accessible

Recent federal policy changes have made higher-value homes more attainable for millennials and Gen Z. As of December 2024, the insured mortgage price cap has increased from $1 million to $1.5 million, allowing more buyers to qualify for mortgage insurance on high-value properties. This shift has significantly lowered down payment requirements, making it easier for first-time homebuyers to enter the market.

For example, under previous rules, a $1.4 million home required a 20% down payment of $280,000. With the new policy, buyers now only need to put down $115,000—a $165,000 reduction in upfront costs. This change enables more millennials to purchase homes without waiting years to save for a traditional 20% down payment.

How Much Should You Save for a Down Payment?

Using data from the Canadian Real Estate Association’s 2024 average home prices, Zoocasa analyzed how much buyers need to save for a down payment across Canada. In high-cost areas like Fraser Valley, where the average home price is $1,039,351, the new minimum down payment is $78,935—giving buyers an additional $128,935 in purchasing power. In Greater Vancouver, the minimum down payment has dropped to $104,195, a reduction of $154,195 from previous requirements.

In Toronto, where the average home price is $1,118,137, the new minimum down payment is $86,814—significantly lower than the previous 20% requirement of $223,627. This shift allows buyers to enter the market sooner without accumulating a massive upfront savings amount.

Millennials’ Attitude Toward Debt and Real Estate

Unlike previous generations, millennials are more comfortable carrying mortgage debt. Many entered the workforce during or after the 2008 financial crisis, faced high student loan burdens, and adapted to managing significant debt loads. With the new mortgage rules lowering down payment requirements, many millennials are stretching their budgets to afford homes in competitive markets.

According to Statistics Canada, in 2019, the median mortgage debt for millennials was $218,000—over 2.5 times their after-tax income of $83,200. In contrast, young boomers carried a median mortgage of $67,800, roughly equal to their after-tax income. Despite taking on more debt, millennials recognize homeownership as a pathway to long-term financial stability.

Homeownership as a Wealth-Building Strategy

Owning a home remains one of the most effective ways to build wealth. Canadian millennial homeowners aged 30 to 34 had a median wealth of $261,900 in 2019—far surpassing the $18,400 median wealth of non-homeowners. This suggests that those who can afford to buy real estate are more likely to do so, even if it means carrying larger mortgages.

Despite rising home prices, millennials' incomes reflect their ability to buy homes. In 2024, a CMHC report found that homebuyers aged 25 to 34 had an average household income of $105,000, while 50% of homebuyers aged 35 to 44 earned $105,000 or more. Additionally, some millennials benefit from intergenerational wealth transfers, with many boomers expected to leave an average inheritance of $940,000.

More Space Matters: Millennials Prefer Detached Homes

Millennials are prioritizing space and are willing to pay for it. According to the Ontario Real Estate Association’s Buyer and Seller Report, most millennial and first-time buyers in Ontario prefer detached and semi-detached homes over condos. This indicates that they view homeownership as a long-term investment rather than a temporary stepping stone.

With the new mortgage rules, buyers in Toronto and Mississauga now have more purchasing power. In the 905 region, where detached homes average $1,336,718 and semi-detached homes $953,776, reduced down payment requirements make these properties more accessible.

The Rise of Single Buyers in Real Estate

An increasing number of single buyers—particularly women—are entering the housing market, reflecting a broader trend of financial independence. In 1981, married couples made up 73% of homebuyers, while single women accounted for just 11%. By January 2024, the share of married couples had dropped to 59%, with single women making up 19%, single men 10%, and unmarried couples 9%.

This shift signals a changing landscape where homeownership is no longer tied to traditional life milestones like marriage. Instead, more individuals are using real estate as a tool for financial stability and wealth-building on their own terms.

Millennials Will Continue to Drive the Housing Market in 2025

Despite affordability challenges, millennials remain committed to homeownership. A 2024 Scotiabank poll found that 58% of millennials and Gen Z plan to buy a home within the next five years. However, 82% acknowledge that homeownership is becoming increasingly difficult. Even so, they still view real estate as a crucial long-term investment.

With shifting financial priorities, policy changes, and evolving affordability dynamics, millennials are playing a key role in shaping Canada’s housing market. Their demand for more space, investment potential, and financial security will continue to influence real estate trends for years to come.

Selling your home is an exciting milestone, but it requires careful preparation to ensure a smooth process and a top-dollar sale. Whether you're moving for a new job, upgrading, or downsizing, getting your home market-ready is essential. Here’s a step-by-step guide to help you prepare your home for a successful sale.

1. Understand the Market

Before listing your home, research the local real estate market. Look at comparable home sales in your area to gauge pricing trends and demand. Consider working with a real estate professional who can provide insights and a competitive market analysis (CMA) to help you price your home strategically.

2. Declutter and Depersonalize

3. Make Necessary Repairs and Upgrades

Small repairs can make a big difference in how your home is perceived. Fix leaky faucets, squeaky doors, chipped paint, and other minor issues. If your budget allows, consider making strategic upgrades like a fresh coat of neutral paint, modern light fixtures, or updated hardware to add value.

4. Boost Curb Appeal

First impressions matter, and your home’s exterior is the first thing buyers see. Enhance curb appeal by mowing the lawn, trimming bushes, planting flowers, and ensuring the entryway is clean and inviting. A fresh coat of paint on the front door can also make a big impact.

5. Deep Clean Your Home

A spotless home is more appealing to buyers. Consider hiring professional cleaners to deep clean carpets, windows, and hard-to-reach areas. Pay special attention to kitchens and bathrooms, as these spaces are major selling points.

6. Stage Your Home for Showings

Staging helps highlight your home’s best features. Arrange furniture to maximise space, add fresh flowers or greenery for a touch of life, and use soft lighting to create a warm and inviting atmosphere. If needed, consult a professional stager for expert advice.

7. Take High-Quality Listing Photos

Most buyers start their home search online, so high-quality photos are crucial. Work with a real estate agent or a professional photographer to capture your home in the best light, showcasing its key features and selling points.

8. Prepare for Showings and Open Houses

Once your home is listed, be ready for showings. Keep your home tidy, maintain a neutral scent (avoid strong fragrances), and consider leaving during showings to allow buyers to explore comfortably. Have a plan for pets to ensure they don’t disrupt potential buyers.

9. Work with a Trusted Real Estate Professional

A skilled real estate agent can guide you through the selling process, from pricing and marketing to negotiations and closing. Choose an agent with experience in your local market who understands your goals and can help maximize your home’s value.

10. Be Ready for Offers and Negotiations

Once offers start coming in, review them carefully with your agent. Be prepared to negotiate terms, including price, contingencies, and closing dates. A well-prepared home often attracts competitive offers, giving you more leverage in negotiations.

Final Thoughts

Selling your home doesn’t have to be overwhelming. With proper preparation, strategic marketing, and the right team by your side, you can successfully sell your home for the best possible price. If you’re considering selling, start planning early and take the necessary steps to make your home stand out in today’s market.

Looking for expert advice on selling your home? Contact us today to get a personalized home evaluation and marketing plan!

As tensions rise over potential new U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods, the Canadian housing market finds itself at the centre of concern. Industry experts warn that a looming trade war, sparked by the prospect of a 25% tariff on Canadian exports to the U.S., could have far-reaching implications for housing affordability, construction costs, and the broader economy.

The Immediate Impact: Rising Construction Costs

The U.S. and Canada share a robust trading relationship, exchanging billions of dollars' worth of homebuilding materials annually. If President Trump proceeds with the proposed tariffs, and Canada responds with retaliatory measures as Prime Minister Trudeau has indicated, the cost of key construction materials is expected to surge.

Kevin Lee, CEO of the Canadian Home Builders' Association (CHBA), notes that materials like glass products, appliances, hardware, ceramics, and primary metals such as iron, steel, and aluminium would be among the hardest hit. In 2023 alone, Canada imported over $14 billion worth of these metals from the U.S., along with billions more in other essential building supplies. Higher costs for these materials will inevitably be passed on to homebuyers, affecting both new constructions and renovations.

Economic Ripple Effects

While the direct impact on material costs is significant, the broader economic consequences could be even more problematic. Tariffs can trigger economic slowdowns or even recessions, leading to job losses and reduced consumer confidence—factors that directly affect housing demand. As Kevin Lee highlights, "An economic slowdown or recession always translates directly into fewer housing starts."

This is particularly concerning given that Canada's housing market is currently in a recovery phase. A 2025 housing outlook projects a 6% increase in average home prices this year, with housing starts up 2% year-over-year in 2024. A trade war could stall this momentum, exacerbating the country's ongoing housing supply issues.

Challenges for Homebuyers and Renovators

While resale homes may not face direct price increases from tariffs, the renovation sector will likely experience significant cost hikes. Phil Soper, CEO of Royal LePage, points out that the renovation industry relies heavily on imported materials, meaning that homeowners planning upgrades could face unexpectedly high expenses.

Potential Mitigation Strategies

Despite the looming challenges, there are measures that could help mitigate the impact. Suppliers are already seeking alternative sources for materials to reduce dependence on U.S. imports. Additionally, government intervention could play a crucial role.

Some suggests that removing the GST on new homes and lowering high development taxes could help offset the increased costs from tariffs. Moreover, the situation could encourage Canada to diversify its supply chains, fostering greater economic resilience in the long run.

A Resilient Outlook

While the prospect of a trade war poses undeniable risks, Canada’s strong economic fundamentals provide a buffer. As Phil Soper emphasises, "Canada is a G7 country, one of the largest and most dynamic economies on the planet, and we will adjust."

In conclusion, while the potential U.S. tariffs and subsequent trade war could disrupt the Canadian housing market, proactive measures by both the government and the industry could help navigate these turbulent times. Homebuyers, builders, and investors alike will need to stay informed and adaptable as the situation unfolds.

Ready to Navigate the Market?

If you're considering buying, selling, or investing in real estate amidst these changing economic conditions, we're here to help. Contact us today for expert advice tailored to your needs and stay ahead in Canada's dynamic housing market.