As we move into the second half of 2025, Canada’s housing market is showing signs of cautious optimism, according to TD Economics’ latest forecast. National home sales saw a modest 4% month-over-month increase in May, a reflection of pent-up demand returning after a sluggish start to the year. But while the data is beginning to cooperate with a recovery narrative, not all regions are on equal footing—especially when it comes to Ontario.
Ontario’s Housing Market: Cautiously Cool
For buyers and sellers in Ontario, the landscape remains complex. Despite the uptick in national sales, TD forecasts that home prices in Ontario are likely to decline in the second half of the year. The reason? A supply and demand imbalance that currently favours buyers. There are simply more homes on the market than there are active, motivated purchasers—especially in urban centres like the GTA, where the condo market continues to underperform due to weak investor demand.
That said, the average sale price may still see temporary upward pressure. Higher-end properties are more likely to sell in the current market, which can skew the average price upward, even as lower-cost segments lag behind. This "compositional boost" shouldn’t be mistaken for broad-based price growth—it’s more a reflection of which types of homes are moving right now.
What This Means for Sellers
If you're thinking about selling in the near future, it's more important than ever to position your home strategically. While demand is down overall, well-presented and appropriately priced properties—especially in desirable neighbourhoods—are still finding buyers. With more competition on the market, your listing needs to stand out, and working with a professional who knows how to attract serious, qualified buyers can make all the difference.
What This Means for Buyers
For buyers, particularly first-timers or those looking to upsize, this market offers a window of opportunity. With less competition and more negotiating power, it's possible to secure a home with favourable terms—something that was nearly impossible during the height of the pandemic-era market. However, affordability remains a key constraint, especially in Ontario. Even with prices softening slightly, high borrowing costs and economic uncertainty may continue to dampen purchasing power.
Looking Ahead to 2026
TD expects stronger market performance next year as the broader economy improves and interest rates begin to ease slightly. That could bring more buyers back into the market and put upward pressure on prices once again. However, don’t expect a dramatic rebound in affordability—especially in major centres like Toronto and Vancouver. Population growth is expected to slow, and without a significant increase in housing completions, supply constraints are likely to persist.
Final Thoughts
This latest forecast confirms what many in the industry are already seeing on the ground: the Canadian housing market is stabilizing but remains deeply regional. For Ontario residents, and particularly for clients in Burlington, Roseland, Aldershot, and Shoreacres, the current moment represents both challenges and unique opportunities.
Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding these macro trends is key to making informed decisions. If you're wondering how to navigate this evolving landscape, I’d be happy to chat about your specific goals and how we can position you for success.
