The Ontario real estate market has entered a new phase—one defined less by frenzied growth and more by recalibration. With new insights emerging from the latest Ontario Land Registry data, a clearer picture is forming of how buyer profiles, investor activity, and ownership patterns have evolved in the face of changing market dynamics.
A Dual-Speed Market: Condos Dominate in the City
One of the most striking revelations is the divergence between Toronto and the rest of the province. While condominiums account for roughly one-quarter of land transfers across Ontario, they represent a dominant 60% in Toronto. This isn’t just a quirk of urban density—it reflects a deepening contrast in buyer demand, inventory levels, and price tolerance.
In 2024, Toronto condo transfers surged by 20% year-over-year. However, this increase was largely driven by the completion of pre-construction units sold in earlier years. Over 15,000 new condos were registered in the Ontario Land Registry, marking a 78% jump from 2023. This wave of new supply may help explain why resale condo transactions fell to their lowest levels—new units are flooding the market and shifting the balance between new and existing inventory.
Multi-Property Owners Retreat—But Not Entirely
Another defining trend of Ontario’s market reset is the decline in activity among multi-property owners (MPOs). Once the province's most active buyer group, MPOs accounted for nearly 25% of transactions in previous years. Their influence remains strong, but the pace is slowing. Notably, the number of MPOs with portfolios of 11 or more properties has dropped significantly—from 13% in April 2022 to just over 7% today.
Despite the retreat, new buyers continue to enter the investor pool. The majority of MPOs today hold just two or three properties, suggesting a prevalence of individual investors rather than large-scale institutional players. Interestingly, a significant portion of recent MPO transactions have occurred without mortgages, indicating that cash-rich buyers are still finding value in select markets, especially in the Greater Toronto Area.
Losses Stack Up for Recent Buyers
While seasoned investors might have the flexibility to hold or pivot, some recent buyers haven't been as fortunate. Data shows that one in four properties bought at the peak of the 2022–2023 market and sold in 2024 were sold at a loss. The average loss across Ontario was around $45,000, with the Greater Toronto Area experiencing a median drop of $56,000. Cottage country properties fared even worse, with median losses reaching as high as $240,000 in some regions.
These losses underscore the risks of buying during a market peak, particularly when paired with rising borrowing costs and limited appreciation potential in the short term.
First-Time Buyers Delayed, But Still Active
High home prices and elevated interest rates have pushed first-time buyers further up the age ladder. In 2011, the average age of a first-time buyer in Ontario was 36; by 2024, it has climbed to 40. This cohort now favours condos, especially in urban centres like Toronto, where affordability—relatively speaking—remains most accessible in this housing type.
Despite economic challenges, first-time buyers continue to play a critical role in the condo market, accounting for roughly one-quarter of condo purchases across the province. The average price for first-time buyers in Toronto has risen sharply over the past decade, from just under $500,000 to approximately $1.3 million in 2024.
Homeowners Holding On Longer
A significant behavioural shift is also happening among existing homeowners. The average holding period for non-condo properties has increased from 11 years to 12.5 years across Ontario. In Toronto, the average holding period for non-condo properties is nearing 18 years—up from 13.8 a decade ago.
This trend reflects growing uncertainty and a reluctance to re-enter a volatile market. Many homeowners who would traditionally move up or downsize are now choosing to stay put, either waiting for more stable conditions or benefiting from low locked-in mortgage rates.
What Comes Next?
Ontario’s housing market appears to be undergoing a structural reset. Investor enthusiasm is more measured, first-time buyers are entering the market later, and homeowners are staying longer. While interest rates and policy decisions will continue to shape the future, current data suggests that a return to the exuberance of the past decade is unlikely in the near term.
Instead, the market is moving toward a more balanced state—one where patience, prudence, and informed decision-making are once again critical to navigating Ontario real estate.
