After a slow start to the year marked by uncertainty, early signs of renewed confidence are emerging in Canada’s housing market. Recent data from major real estate boards across the country point to a rebound in home resale activity, particularly in regions where the slowdown had been most pronounced.
For buyers, sellers, and investors in southern Ontario and beyond, understanding what’s happening nationally provides valuable context for local decisions — especially as we head into the heart of the summer real estate season.
A Rebound in Key Markets
According to recent reports, home resales rose in May 2025 across several major urban centres, including Toronto, Ottawa, Calgary, Edmonton, Fraser Valley, Saskatoon, and Regina. While activity remains well below the highs of previous years, this uptick represents a break from the downward momentum seen earlier in 2025.
This modest recovery appears tied to easing fears surrounding the global trade environment. Although concerns linger, particularly in regions impacted by tariff escalations, the overall tone in recent weeks has improved. That optimism may be translating into action, as sidelined buyers begin to re-enter the market.
Southern Ontario: Still Soft, But Stabilizing
Markets in southern Ontario, including the Toronto region, Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo, and Cambridge, remain among the softest in the country, with activity levels near cyclical lows. Home prices in these areas continue to face downward pressure. In fact, the MLS Home Price Index declined again in May in most of these cities compared to April.
However, in Toronto, signs of stabilization are beginning to emerge.
Toronto: Turning a Corner?
Toronto’s real estate market had been hit hard by spring’s economic uncertainty. Sales activity dropped to levels not seen in decades, while price declines rattled seller confidence. But May saw an 8.4% increase in resales over April, marking the second consecutive monthly gain.
This shift could reflect a growing sense that the worst-case economic outcomes may be behind us. With interest rates cut earlier this year and inventory at multi-decade highs, buyers are in a strong negotiating position, which may help fuel activity heading into the second half of the year.
Still, Toronto home prices are down 4.5% year-over-year, and with supply continuing to outpace demand, further softening is likely in the short term.
Calgary and Montreal Show Relative Strength
While Toronto and Vancouver remain fragile, other markets are proving more resilient.
Calgary: Demand Rebounding as Economy Grows
Calgary saw a notable rebound in May, with estimated resales jumping over 8% from April. Thanks to strong population growth and an employment rate growing nearly three times faster than the national average, demand remains healthy.
Although Calgary’s MLS HPI declined year-over-year for the first time since 2020, new construction and additional inventory are helping to keep the market balanced. Buyers are taking advantage of greater selection without the urgency of last year’s pace.
Montreal: Holding Steady Amid Uncertainty
Montreal continues to demonstrate relative stability. Though resales dipped slightly by 2% in May, activity remains at what would have been considered solid pre-pandemic levels. Tight inventory has supported pricing, with median prices rising 8.6% for single-family homes and 4.3% for condos year-over-year.
Montreal’s market doesn’t appear overheated, but steady growth in new listings could gradually temper price appreciation in the months ahead.
Vancouver: A Buyer’s Market Emerges
Unlike Calgary and Montreal, Vancouver remains in correction mode. May likely marked the sixth straight month of declining resale activity, returning to lows last seen in 2023.
Inventory is high — the highest in over a decade — and competition between sellers is putting pressure on pricing. Vancouver’s MLS HPI dropped 2.9% year-over-year, and with buyers staying cautious, downward pressure may continue.
With supply growing and buyers holding the upper hand, Vancouver remains firmly a buyer’s market for now.
What This Means for Southern Ontario Sellers
While national trends point to stabilization, southern Ontario remains in a period of adjustment. Activity levels are picking up slowly, but pricing remains under pressure — and inventory is abundant in many areas.
For sellers in Burlington, Oakville, and the GTA, this means that pricing your home accurately is more important than ever. Buyers have choices. Sellers need strategy.
At The Smallbone Team, we use a deep, data-informed approach to valuation, helping you list with confidence and clarity in today’s evolving market.
Final Thoughts
The national housing outlook for mid-2025 is cautiously optimistic. Many markets are stabilizing after a rocky start to the year, and early signs of renewed confidence are beginning to surface. But recovery will be uneven. As the second half of the year unfolds, buyers will continue to benefit from increased inventory and price flexibility, while sellers will need to lean on strategy and local market expertise to stand out. If you're thinking about making a move in Burlington or nearby, now’s the time to start preparing — and pricing right.
