Bank of Canada. It all felt like the makings of a rebound. But the lingering question remains: Are we there yet?
A Long and Uncertain Journey
Instead of a straightforward path to recovery, the Canadian real estate market has felt more like an endless road trip, complete with false starts and fleeting signs of progress. For years, the narrative of “buyers on the sidelines” has dominated industry conversations, waiting for just the right conditions to re-enter the market. But what truly drives these buyers back in? The answer seems to hinge on whether prices are moving up or down.
"Buy the Dip"
The concept of "buying the dip" has gained traction, particularly among those hoping to time the market's bottom. Yet, the adage "time in the market, not timing the market" echoes for a reason. If you aim to hit the market’s lowest point, you need to be active as prices are falling. Ironically, those waiting for the dip often realize they’ve missed it, with prices already rebounding after months of declines.
This dynamic creates an important takeaway: market participants don’t just observe the market—they shape it. Buyers submitting below-market offers during downturns essentially create the dip rather than merely benefiting from it.
Recovery or Relief Rally?
Up until recently, market data suggested no clear signs of recovery. However, September saw a surprising deviation from seasonal norms, breaking away from the usual back-to-school rush. This trend continued into November, a month traditionally marked by a slowdown, with sales and prices both rising.
According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales climbed 2.8% in November compared to October, amounting to an 18.4% increase since May. Sidelined buyers appear to be re-entering the market, spurred by lower rates and improved affordability.
Buyer Activity Heats Up
Unsurprisingly, activity remains strongest in major markets such as Greater Toronto, Metro Vancouver, Calgary, and Montreal. Smaller cities in Alberta and Ontario have also reported double-digit increases in sales. This resurgence raises the question: Is this the beginning of a sustained recovery or merely a short-term response to policy changes?
While the market looks more like pre-pandemic norms (2016-2019), it feels inflated compared to last year’s lows and subdued compared to the pandemic-era highs.
Sellers Regain the Advantage
For sellers, the market has tilted firmly in their favor. The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) rose to 59.2% in November, up from the 52%-53% range earlier this year. With new listings down 0.8% month-over-month, buyers face increasing competition for a shrinking pool of homes.
The months of inventory metric dropped to 3.7 months nationally, the lowest in over a year. A balanced market typically requires 4-6 months of inventory, underscoring the imbalance between supply and demand.
Rising Prices: Genuine Growth or Illusion?
November marked a turning point for home prices, with the National Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) rising 0.6% from October. The actual national average sale price also jumped 7.4% compared to November 2023. Despite these gains, the HPI remains 1.2% lower year-over-year, signaling that the market hasn’t fully recovered from the downturn caused by earlier rate hikes.
This fragile recovery remains susceptible to external shocks, including future rate adjustments, economic policy changes, and broader economic uncertainties.
Supply Challenges Persist
By November’s end, Canada had just over 160,000 properties listed for sale, 8.9% more than a year ago but still below the long-term average of 178,000. While some interpret this as a structural supply deficiency, others see potential room for growth.
Notably, active listings have trended upward since the rate-hiking cycle began, indicating that supply is gradually improving but still falling short of meeting demand.
Spring Market: A Crucial Test
The upcoming spring market will likely play a pivotal role in determining the direction of Canadian real estate. Traditionally the busiest season, it often sets the tone for the year. However, potential headwinds—including recession fears, declining population growth, and rising unemployment—could dampen buyer enthusiasm. These challenges may counteract the optimism generated by lower borrowing costs.
Final Thoughts
Lower interest rates often serve as a temporary boost to the housing market, but they fail to address the underlying disparity between incomes and house prices. This leaves many buyers, particularly first-time buyers, struggling to compete. While rising home values benefit sellers and existing homeowners, they further widen the gap between the haves and have-nots.
The road to recovery for Canadian real estate remains uncertain. While recent momentum provides hope, it’s clear that the journey is far from over. The market must navigate a delicate balance of economic pressures, policy shifts, and buyer sentiment to sustain meaningful growth.
