A Sharp Decline in Sales Despite Spring Momentum

March is historically one of the most active real estate months in Southern Ontario. But this year, the numbers told a different story. According to the latest data from the REALTORS® Association of Hamilton-Burlington, residential sales across the entire RAHB market area fell by 23.5% month-over-month and were down 4.5% year-over-year.

In Hamilton, March sales dropped from 565 in February to just 444 transactions, marking a 21.4% month-over-month decrease and a 6.7% decline year-over-year.

Burlington, part of Halton Region, was hit even harder. March saw only 200 home sales, compared to 327 in February — a staggering 38.8% drop month-over-month, and down 13% year-over-year.

Over in Niagara North, the story was similarly bleak, with sales falling 40.1% compared to the previous month, and 4.6% compared to March 2024.

Even the traditionally robust Toronto market saw a 23% decline in monthly sales. These aren’t just cooling signs — they’re indicative of a shift in the underlying forces of supply and demand.

Listings Are Climbing, Competition is Growing

While buyers pulled back, sellers entered the market in greater numbers. New listings across the RAHB region increased by 19.6% from February, with a total of 1,692 homes listed in March.

In Hamilton, new listings rose by 12.3%. Burlington saw a 22.8% increase, and Toronto listings jumped nearly 30% in just one month. Only Niagara North bucked the trend, with a 13.4% decrease in new listings.

This growing inventory, paired with falling sales, has driven the sales-to-new-listings ratio down to 41.9% — the lowest seen in over a year. For context, anything below 40% is considered a buyer’s market, and while we’re not quite there yet, we’re getting close. Homes are spending more time on the market, and buyers have more choice, leverage, and time to make decisions.

Why Is Demand Dropping? The Economy Is Sending Mixed Signals

While it’s tempting to point to interest rates alone, the current slowdown is more complex. A significant factor affecting buyer confidence in March was the re-escalation of Canada-U.S. trade tensions. The United States, under new executive direction, reinstated tariffs on Canadian aluminium, steel, and other key raw materials — a move that has had a domino effect across the Canadian economy.

These tariffs are especially relevant in Hamilton, where manufacturing and steel production are deeply tied to the local economy. The uncertainty surrounding export demand, job security, and corporate investment has spooked both buyers and developers. Builders are facing higher material costs, causing delays in new housing starts and upward pressure on pricing. For consumers, the perception of economic instability has led many to hold off on major financial decisions, including home purchases.

These conditions are not isolated to Hamilton. The construction sector across Ontario is now facing increased costs on everything from structural framing to HVAC components — all of which affect either the price or timeline of housing delivery. Even in higher-income areas like Burlington, the trickle-down effect of these macroeconomic shifts has eroded market momentum.

The Rate Cut: Too Little, Too Late?

In an effort to provide some economic relief, the Bank of Canada lowered its overnight interest rate by 25 basis points in March, bringing the policy rate to 2.75%. This was the first cut since rates peaked in 2023, and it's aimed at making borrowing cheaper to stimulate homebuying and business investment.

While this is a positive development for affordability on paper, the actual impact in March was limited. Buyers remained cautious, and lenders are still stress-testing applicants at much higher qualifying rates. It’s also worth noting that the rate cut came after the market had already begun to slow. As a result, we didn’t see a sudden influx of buyers returning to the market last month — though we may yet see some momentum build in April and May if confidence returns.

Buyers: A Window of Opportunity Has Opened

For active buyers, this market shift offers potential advantages not seen in recent years. The increase in inventory gives buyers more selection, and sellers who need to move are becoming more flexible on pricing and terms. Multiple offers are becoming rarer, and homes that were once snapped up in days are now sitting on the market for weeks.

With interest rates slightly lower and less competition, this could be a strategic time to buy — especially for upsizers who are less impacted by small shifts in borrowing costs and who can negotiate more aggressively on move-up properties. However, buyers should proceed with clarity. Economic risk still looms, and it’s essential to work with professionals who can help evaluate long-term value, not just short-term deals.

Sellers: The Market Has Changed — So Should Your Strategy

Gone are the days of underpricing and letting the market drive offers skyward. Today’s sellers need to be precise, realistic, and strategic. Overpricing in this market will lead to prolonged time on market and missed opportunities.

Homes that are turnkey, well-maintained, and priced in line with recent comparables are still moving — especially in family-oriented areas of Burlington and established Hamilton neighbourhoods. But even the best product requires marketing, staging, and negotiation expertise. Sellers need to prepare for longer timelines and ensure they are working with agents who understand how to price and position homes in a cooling cycle.

Looking Ahead: April and Beyond

It’s clear that March 2025 marked a turning point in our regional real estate landscape. Whether this is a temporary adjustment or the beginning of a longer rebalancing remains to be seen. Much will depend on whether the Bank of Canada makes further rate cuts, how the federal government responds to U.S. tariffs, and whether consumer confidence can recover heading into the heart of the spring market.

For now, both buyers and sellers in Burlington and Hamilton should proceed with informed caution — and with the help of professionals who know how to navigate markets in flux.

The Hidden Threat: A Labour Shortage in Construction

According to industry experts and economists, the Canadian housing market is at a tipping point. The issue? A severe shortage of skilled and general labourers in the construction industry. Without swift and strategic changes, this shortage could drive up housing prices even further in the next decade. The demand for homes is high, but the supply simply can’t keep up — not due to a lack of will, but a lack of workers.

Immigration System Needs to Match Labour Demands

Canada’s immigration system plays a key role in shaping our workforce, but right now, it's geared toward attracting highly educated professionals like engineers and IT specialists — not the unskilled or semi-skilled construction workers who are urgently needed on job sites.

Framers, tile setters, and window and door installers — roles that don’t require certification but are essential to any home build — are in particularly short supply. And with 22% of the construction workforce expected to retire by 2030, the gap is only set to widen.

How This Impacts Home Buyers and Sellers

For buyers, this labour shortfall could translate into:

• Longer construction timelines

• Higher prices for new homes

• Increased competition for existing housing

For sellers, this could mean:

• Increased value of resale homes, especially those in good condition

• A potential boost in demand as buyers pivot away from new builds

However, the long-term consequences could also strain infrastructure, delay development projects, and impact overall affordability in urban and rural markets alike.

Regional Programs Show Promise — But Are They Enough?

Provinces like Nova Scotia are stepping up with targeted immigration programs. Their Critical Construction Worker Pilot allows applicants with hands-on experience to bypass traditional education and language requirements. It’s seen success, but experts argue that federal leadership is needed to truly move the needle on a national level.

According to Kevin Lee of the Canadian Home Builders’ Association, “At a time when we have a national housing crisis, we shouldn’t be saying, ‘Let’s let the provincial programs figure it out.’”

The Path Forward

To avoid long-term damage to Canada’s housing affordability goals and infrastructure stability, policymakers must realign immigration pathways with actual labour market needs. This means embracing a more flexible approach to recognizing experience, valuing on-the-job skills, and ensuring immigration policies respond to the full spectrum of economic demand—not just the most credentialed applicants.

Furthermore, there is a growing consensus that Canada must invest more in training programs and incentives for domestic workers, including underrepresented groups, to pursue careers in construction and skilled trades. Encouraging apprenticeship programs, diversifying the labour pool, and modernizing workforce policies will be essential to closing the gap.

Final Thoughts

For homebuyers, developers, and industry professionals alike, the coming decade will be shaped not just by interest rates or economic trends, but by the availability of the workers who physically build the homes and infrastructure Canadians rely on. Without strategic intervention, Canada risks deeper affordability issues and slower progress toward solving its housing shortage.

The time to act is now. A sustainable housing future depends on a construction industry that is fully staffed, adequately supported, and empowered by policies that meet the realities on the ground.

Start with a Thorough Yard Clean-Up

Winter often leaves behind fallen branches, dead leaves, and patches of damaged grass. Before making any improvements, start by tidying up your yard. Rake up any debris that has accumulated over the winter, trim overgrown bushes, trees, and hedges to encourage healthy growth, and pull weeds from garden beds and sidewalks. Adding fresh mulch to flower beds will provide nutrients and enhance the overall appearance of your garden. A clean yard is the foundation for great curb appeal.

Revitalise Your Lawn

A lush green lawn is one of the first things people notice about a home. After a long winter, your grass may be in need of some extra care. Aerating the soil helps nutrients, water, and air reach the roots, promoting healthy growth. If you notice bare patches, overseeding those areas will encourage a thick and even lawn. Applying a high-quality spring fertiliser will give your grass the boost it needs to thrive, and regular watering will help it grow strong and green. These small steps can make a big difference in how your home is perceived from the outside.

Power Wash Your Home’s Exterior

Winter weather can leave your home looking dull and dirty. Power washing is an effective way to remove built-up dirt, mildew, and grime from your siding, walkways, driveway, and deck. If you don’t have a power washer, consider renting one or hiring a professional to do the job. A freshly cleaned exterior can make your home look years newer and more inviting to visitors or potential buyers.

Inspect and Clean Your Gutters

Your gutters play a crucial role in protecting your home from water damage. Over the winter, they may have become clogged with leaves, twigs, and other debris. Cleaning out your gutters ensures proper water drainage and prevents overflow, which can cause damage to your foundation, siding, and landscaping. While cleaning, check for any sagging or damaged sections that may need repairs. Taking care of your gutters now will save you from costly issues later in the year.

Refresh Your Front Entrance

Your front door is one of the most important focal points of your home’s exterior. A fresh coat of paint in a bold or classic colour can completely transform the look of your entryway. Updating your house numbers, replacing worn-out doormats, and adding a seasonal wreath are all simple ways to enhance your home’s curb appeal. Also, ensure your porch lighting is clean and functioning properly, as good lighting creates a warm and welcoming atmosphere.

Assess Your Roof and Siding

Your roof and siding take a beating during the winter months, and minor issues can quickly become costly repairs if left unchecked. Inspect your roof for missing, cracked, or curling shingles that could lead to leaks. Check your siding for cracks, holes, or peeling paint. If you notice any moss or mildew, cleaning it early can prevent long-term damage. If you suspect any major issues, consider hiring a professional to conduct a thorough inspection.

Upgrade Your Outdoor Living Spaces

With warmer weather on the horizon, it’s time to prepare your outdoor spaces for entertaining and relaxation. Start by cleaning and refreshing outdoor furniture. If you have a deck, staining or sealing it will help protect it from wear and tear. Adding potted plants, flowers, and comfortable seating arrangements can transform your backyard into a peaceful retreat. A well-maintained outdoor space not only enhances curb appeal but also adds to the overall enjoyment of your home.

Improve Outdoor Lighting and Security

As the days get longer, it’s important to ensure your outdoor lighting is in top shape. Replace any burned-out bulbs in porch lights, garage lights, and pathways. Consider installing solar-powered garden lights to illuminate walkways or motion-sensor lights for added security. If you have a security system or smart doorbell, check that everything is working properly. A well-lit exterior makes your home feel safer and more inviting.